[podcast]https://www.investors.housez.ca/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/News-Release-From-Remax-Oct-0709.mp3[/podcast]
Just the other day I received an email from a colleague with REMAX’s Western Canada’s news release from September. I guess I’m not on their mailing list if I am getting it passed on to me, I wonder who I will have to talk to?
There was two big announcements in the release. The first was that the “Canadian housing markets buck recession and trend upwards”. This release went on to say with the 
worst of the recession over, that residential real estate markets in the major Canadian cities are poised for growth in the final quarter.
I think that’s great news, but I think it may be a bit too optimistic. While it’s true many of the major cities have seen significant growth in sales percentages, much of it has been stimulated by the increased affordability brought forward by low interest rates. Nationally house values have increased by 0.5% which doesn’t exactly sound earth shattering, but then when you compare it to the US we have done phenomenal.
Also, when you consider during this last year of the recession that Real Estate has held its value it is kind of heartening. This was just an average of course and only represents the last twelve months of which I am painfully aware as I have several properties I am waiting on as they slowly recover their original values. We still have to wait a few more years before the local markets can recover back to the peaks we had seen in 2007 for local Real Estate pricing.
The second big part of the announcement for me was that they quoted an Angus Reid Omnibus Survey that asked, “In which do you feel more comfortable investing your money, the stock market or Real Estate? A surprising 77% of respondents all chose Real Estate, that is a pretty surprising number for me. Although when you get down to it, many people talk about investing in Real Estate, it’s just a chosen few who actually take action and actually do invest on their own or pursue someone to help them like ourselves. It will be interesting to see how that unfolds over the next year and how many actually jump in the waters so to speak.
As for my take on the announcement being perhaps a bit optimistic? Our Real Estate market has been incredibly tricky for anyone to forecast for quite a while now, but at the same time, it’s also been quite consistent through the last quarter of the year. As we move closer to the holiday season and as winter sets in, people aren’t thinking about a new home or even moving as much. Traditionally both sales and listings slow down and during December are the lowest of the year for both new listings and sales. My thoughts are that this year may include a bit more belt tightening than normal as people aren’t quite ready to call the recession over, no matter what press releases they read.
People just seem to be a bit more cautious right now and are filled with even more uncertainty about what will happen over the next few months. Will rates go up? Australia
This is where some will end up
was the first major nation to announce an increase in bank rates, so there is a possibility that Canada could also follow this route. It’s unlikely, but it does make people think. Other questions are will the federal government blow up and how could this affect the economy? Or will the Alberta government beat them to it? So many questions and so many concerns, all with no real answers.
Now I’m not saying the markets are going to start declining again, far from it. I just sense it will be slower again for the next few months until we move into the New Year. Sort of a rest period as the market coasts along for a little while and grabs a breather. Once we move into 2010 though I am expecting some positive market growth.
By that time, we should be feeling even more upbeat about the economy, we should have a better idea about where interest rates may be, or may be heading and we will see even more renewed optimism in the province and the country. I personally cannot wait for 2010, it’s going to be a wonderful time of new growth, new opportunities and newfound enthusiasm for those willing to embrace it.
I’ve always felt the last couple of years have been a weeding out process. It’s provided an opportunity for people to review where they are and what they have been doing (sometimes by corporate decisions out of their control) and make some incredible changes. A dear friend of ours was just let go after 20 years at the same job. Can you imagine what that’s like?
First off 20 years is amazing in this day and age, but the important part is she is taking advantage of this time, this opportunity in our eyes, to find out what she really wants to do. It’s something more people should be doing, but they get so caught up in their day to day life they miss the positives that are right out their in plain site if you have the right mindset.
Now it appears I have gone off topic a bit here, but it’s back to my point that 2010 is
While others will end up here!
going to be a very important time. By all indications it will be the resurgence of the economy with the potential for the recessionary period to be officially over. Right now and over the next year there are going to be so many opportunites for people as business picks up that I just don’t want people to look back and say it surprised them.
